{"id":10394,"date":"2017-11-12T08:16:00","date_gmt":"2017-11-12T06:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/?p=10394"},"modified":"2017-11-12T08:16:46","modified_gmt":"2017-11-12T06:16:46","slug":"saudi-shakeup-gives-the-u-s-an-opening-with-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/?p=10394","title":{"rendered":"Saudi Shakeup Gives the U.S. an Opening With Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Boomberg- Amir Handjani and Alireza Nader<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n<\/address>\n<\/div>\n
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* This can go two ways: toward either war or a new understanding of the balance of Middle Eastern power.<\/span> <\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
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The latest political earthquake<\/a> in Saudi Arabia has led to much speculation over the future of the kingdom and the Gulf Arab states. But most analyses have ignored the far bigger issue looming over the region’s upheavals:\u00a0Prospects for a military confrontation between the\u00a0U.S.\u00a0and Iran are rapidly escalating.<\/p>\n

Just as\u00a0Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman\u00a0was consolidating\u00a0absolute power\u00a0last weekend–\u00a0cracking down on the last royal relatives, billionaire investors, Wahhabi clerics and rights advocates\u00a0who posed\u00a0a threat to his reign — the kingdom announced it was holding\u00a0Iran responsible for a\u00a0missile attack\u00a0on Riyadh by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The group\u00a0does have ties\u00a0to Tehran, but Saudi claims remain unsubstantiated.<\/div>\n
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Meanwhile,\u00a0a close Saudi ally, Prime Minister Saad Hariri\u00a0of Lebanon,\u00a0abruptly resigned his post while on a visit to Riyadh, citing\u00a0fears of\u00a0an Iranian attempt on his life.\u00a0The Lebanese army and Iran\u2019s ally in Lebanon,\u00a0Hezbollah,\u00a0deny any such plot.\u00a0Lebanon is increasingly becoming a flashpoint in the cold war between Tehran and Riyadh.<\/div>\n
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If Saudi Arabia forces a showdown with Iran,\u00a0the U.S.\u00a0would find itself in the middle of it.\u00a0Statements by President\u00a0Donald\u00a0Trump and his national security team point to a more aggressive U.S posture toward Tehran. This\u00a0pushback includes de-certifying Iranian compliance with the\u00a02015 nuclear pact\u00a0despite overwhelming evidence of Iran\u2019s\u00a0compliance,\u00a0as well as\u00a0imposing sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Hezbollah, and Iran\u2019s ballistic missile program.<\/div>\n

\u202fThe Trump administration\u2019s desire to isolate and pressure Iran reflects outdated thinking that does not take into account the shifting realities of today\u2019s Middle East. The most likely outcome\u00a0is\u00a0it will\u00a0inadvertently strengthen Iran\u2019s hand in the region, much as\u00a0President\u00a0George W. Bush administration\u2019s invasion of Iraq did in 2003.<\/p>\n

\u202fIran is now, arguably, the most powerful regional actor in the Middle East. Tehran is a decisive player in Syria, Lebanon\u00a0and Iraq,\u00a0and its influence extends to Yemen and Afghanistan.\u00a0Pushing back on Iranian power would mean confronting Iranian forces in countries where they are embedded with local militias\u00a0or have been invited by host governments, as\u00a0is the case in Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n

\u202fFurthermore, Iran is no longer\u00a0a global pariah. It has a strong partnership with Russia in Syria and increasingly shared interest with Turkey on issues relating to\u00a0Kurdish independence and strengthening the central government in Baghdad. Both Turkey and Iran back Qatar in its dispute with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. That quarrel has created openings for Iran to project itself as a stabilizing force in the Middle East to other major powers such as China and India.<\/p>\n

\u202fWith the Arab world and the Gulf Cooperation Council deeply divided, Washington\u2019s attempts to isolate Iran run counter to European, Russian, and Chinese attempts to cajole Tehran to play a more constructive regional role, one befitting its status as a rising power.<\/p>\n

\u202fU.S. attempts to undermine the\u00a0nuclear deal\u00a0will likely only draw other global actors to Iran\u2019s side, especially as European countries could view Tehran as a more responsible partner in upholding commitments, in contrast to Washington’s new\u00a0unpredictability.<\/p>\n

\u202f\u00a0Iran is also increasingly turning to Asia as a source of credit and commerce. China views Iran as a critical component of its One Belt One Road economic initiative, which seeks to connect Beijing to the Middle East and\u00a0Europe. Japan, South Korea\u00a0and India also see Tehran as an\u00a0untapped market worthy of short-term risks in exchange for future economic gain. All are now buyers of Iranian crude and petrochemicals, and all are looking to make substantial investments\u00a0in the Iranian economy.<\/p>\n

U.S. sanctions against Iran are unlikely to reverse its influence in the Middle East. The Syrian government is heavily dependent on Iran while the Iraqi government views it as a partner in combatting Sunni Jihadism and Kurdish separatism. Sanctions will undoubtedly slow Iran\u2019s economic growth, as they have for the past 40 years, but they will not fundamentally alter Iran\u2019s ability to project influence.<\/p>\n

It’s unlikely that the U.S. and Iran will stop antagonizing each other any time soon. But the Trump administration could treat Iran\u00a0not as a rogue threat but\u00a0as it would treat any major rival, such as\u00a0Russia or China.\u00a0Where suitable\u00a0Washington could engage with Tehran.\u00a0When\u00a0otherwise\u00a0necessary, it could make clear that it will not compromise on the security and stability of its allies.<\/p>\n

Washington and Tehran need to come to an understanding so as not to further enflame the region.\u00a0This would entail the Trump administration abandoning its attempts to\u00a0undermine the nuclear agreement and calling for regime change in Iran. Continuing to demonize Iran for all the ills of the Middle East is counterproductive and will only lead to further escalation. This strategy was employed during the George W. Bush administration with disastrous consequences.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration should re-establish high level contact that existed during the previous administration and broaden the scope of diplomatic engagement to include regional security issues. The should take place at the ministerial level, with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. If nothing else, this would ease some tension and provide a pressure valve for airing grievances.<\/p>\n

It can also resolve crises that may arise in the Persian Gulf, where both navies operate. In 2016, Iran\u2019s capture of U.S. sailors was resolved peacefully because of the rapport established between Secretary of State Kerry and Foreign Minister Zarif. It is difficult to imagine in today\u2019s contentious climate such an incident settled without a shot being fired. Diplomatic channels to deconflict between hostile countries are necessary.<\/p>\n

It is unlikely that the U.S. could dissuade Iran from some of its most troublesome activities such as supporting Hezbollah or Hamas, but there is a middle ground in which the two sides can live with the existing realities on the ground. For example, the U.S. and Iran have a shared interest in preventing the reemergence of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Neither side wants the political uncertainty in Lebanon (now imminent because of Harriri\u2019s resignation) to spiral out of control. Both Tehran and Washington want to strengthen the central government in Afghanistan.\u00a0 Ultimately, both countries have a vested interest in seeing the sectarian violence that has engulfed the region come to an end.<\/p>\n

U.S. policymakers should not assume they can reverse the trends of the last\u00a015 years. The U.S. invasion of Iraq showed how poor planning and erroneous assumptions can backfire. At the time, the Bush administration wrongly predicted\u202fthat liberating Iraq from Saddam Hussein would unleash democratic movements across the region and diminish Iranian influence. Similarly, possibly faulty assumptions when it comes to Iran could pave the way for the permanent erosion of American power in an increasingly unpredictable Middle East.<\/p>\n

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Boomberg- Amir Handjani and Alireza Nader * This can go two ways: toward either war or a new understanding of the balance of Middle Eastern power. The latest political earthquake in Saudi Arabia has led to much speculation over the future of the kingdom and the Gulf Arab states. But most analyses have ignored the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4220,388],"tags":[4858,4861,4860,758,1782,4859,3973,1548],"class_list":["post-10394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-slide","tag-aldiplmasy","tag-an-opening","tag-gives","tag-iran","tag-saudi","tag-shakeup","tag-the-u-s","tag-with"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10394"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10394\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10397,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10394\/revisions\/10397"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aldiplomasy.com\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}