Ashraf AboArafe writes ✍️
IN a rapidly evolving economic landscape, the 2025 report of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presents a balanced and data-driven picture of Uzbekistan’s business climate. The Composite Business Climate Index remained firmly in positive territory, reaching an annual average of 57 points on a scale from −100 to +100 — a 7% increase compared to 2024.
This positive trajectory comes in the context of the reform agenda led by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, whose policies have focused on structural transformation, improving the investment environment, expanding economic openness, and strengthening the private sector as a central engine of growth.
Improved Current Conditions, Cautious Expectations
The main driver behind the overall improvement was a significant rise in assessments of current business conditions. The Current Conditions Index increased by 22%, reaching 47 points. This reflects tangible progress in production activity, demand stability, and operational performance across sectors.
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index declined slightly from 68 to 66 points, although it remains at a relatively high level. This modest decline signals a degree of prudence among enterprises regarding near-term prospects, despite stronger confidence in present conditions.
Throughout the year, the index showed moderate fluctuations. It peaked in June at 63 points and recorded its lowest level in January at 52 points, reflecting seasonal patterns and businesses’ adaptation to evolving economic circumstances. By December, the index stood at 58 points, two points higher than at the end of 2024, confirming sustained optimism.
Sectoral Performance: Services Lead the Momentum
Sectoral analysis shows improvement across most economic activities:
- Services: 58 points (+14.7%)
- Construction: 57 points (+14.2%)
- Industry: 54 points (+6.8%)
- Agriculture: 56 points (virtually unchanged)
The services sector emerged as the primary growth engine, reflecting expansion in domestic consumption, trade, and service-related activities. Agriculture maintained a stable and positive position, indicating consistent performance without major shifts.
Regional Trends: Strong Gains Beyond the Capital
Regionally, the annual average index increased in 11 regions. In seven regions, the average reached 57 points.
The most notable improvements were recorded in:
- Kashkadarya region: +27%
- Jizzakh region: +23%
- Khorezm region: +17%
- Republic of Karakalpakstan: +19%
In Samarkand region, despite a slight decline, the index remained positive at 51 points. In Tashkent region, the indicator held steady at 44 points, reflecting differing growth dynamics between regions.
Price Expectations and Market Demand
Inflation expectations remained moderate in 2025. On average, 23% of companies anticipated price increases in the near term, two percentage points lower than in 2024. During the year, this share fluctuated between 18% and 27%, peaking in April and reaching its lowest levels in September and December.
At the same time, demand expectations were strong. On average, 66% of entrepreneurs expected increased demand for goods and services, while 57% planned to expand their workforce. This reflects continued confidence in domestic market activity.
Employment and Demand Indicators Strengthen
- Employment Index: 43 points (+12%)
- Demand Index: 48 points (+13%)
Construction recorded the strongest employment growth (+17%), followed by services (+14%), agriculture (+11%), and industry (+7%). The Demand Index saw the largest contribution from services (+19%), while construction, industry, and agriculture each grew by 6%.
These figures point to a business environment characterized by steady labor demand and expanding market activity.
Fewer Barriers, Financing Still a Challenge
Over the course of the year, business constraints gradually declined. Sixty percent of entrepreneurs reported no significant difficulties — a 6% improvement compared to 2024.
In industry, challenges related to electricity supply, tax burden, and access to financing decreased. Financing barriers also fell significantly in agriculture and construction. However, access to finance remains the primary obstacle in construction and industry, cited by 11% of respondents in each sector.
Analytical Conclusion
The 2025 findings suggest that Uzbekistan’s business climate has moved from recovery toward consolidation and cautious stability. Improved current indicators, sustained positive expectations, and reduced operational barriers reflect a maturing economic environment.
With continued structural reforms under President Mirziyoyev’s leadership, Uzbekistan appears to be strengthening its investment appeal. The year 2025 stands not merely as a period of positive figures, but as a stage of reinforced confidence — grounded in realism, yet oriented toward future growth.
