By Ahmed Moustafa
..head of Asia Center for Studies and Translation
A meeting will be held this morning, Monday, September 4, 2023, between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi, Russia, after a long postponement of this meeting, which was scheduled to take place more than a month ago.
Perhaps President Putin wanted to blame President Erdogan indirectly by postponing this meeting due to President Erdogan’s failure to fulfill some of his electoral promises, and therefore perhaps Turkey was not accepted as a member of the BRICS group at the South African summit because of the Turkish betrayal of Russia in some of the topics that we will address here, and Iran and Egypt were accepted in return.
One of the most important topics for discussion during this meeting is the escalating situation in Syria, where there is an urgent need for a political settlement and cooperation to end the protracted conflict, and this story complements the visit of the new Turkish foreign minister and former intelligence chief (Fidan) to Tehran to meet his veteran counterpart Abdollahian.
The latter stressed in the press conference the need for a peaceful political solution to the Syrian problem, respect for the border between the two countries, and the need to fight terrorism until things stabilize, and this is reflected in raising the level of development and reconstruction of Syria.
Another important issue addressed was bilateral trade relations between Russia and Turkey. According to the latest reports and analysis from Reuters that Turkey is trying to pressure Russia to return to the agreement, which it exited in late July, in order to win some cards against the European Union countries and also the United States.
In order for Turkish shipping lines to benefit, as it were, from a grain agreement through which one million tons of Russian grain were shipped to the world. But Putin’s Russia requires several important trade conditions, including the implementation of the removal of banking, logistical, and insurance sanctions on Russian ships and cargo.
Putin may also ask Erdogan not to accept or block Sweden’s admission to NATO until he proves his loyalty in some of the actions that Russia surprised after Erdogan’s election for a third term, despite the support of Russia, Iran and China in these elections.
The situation in Ukraine will also be addressed during the Sochi meeting on the ongoing conflict, and the extent to which they agree or differ in their approaches to stabilizing the region will be assessed.
The issue of regional stability, particularly in the Caucasus, received considerable attention during the meeting. Due to recent conflicts and unresolved conflicts in the region, including Nagorno-Karabakh. This affects strategic stability and the West’s attempt to exploit this conflict to its advantage by encouraging extremists from the younger generation on both sides, as reported in several reports.
The energy sector emerged as another focal point in the discussions, with the two leaders stressing the importance of energy cooperation between their countries. In particular, the completion of the Russian energy hub project and the Turkish Stream in Turkey as an alternative to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 lines, which were destroyed by NATO to sever the Russian-German relationship.
Whereas Germany and other Western European countries also bought gas from America by force, and this is what was stated in the results of the investigative report of the great journalist (Simon Hirsch) on this incident. and the potential benefits of this partnership in terms of energy security, economic diversification, and geopolitical impact, taking into account recent shifts in global energy dynamics.
Counter-terrorism efforts were a key theme at the meeting as Russia and Turkey continue to face terrorism-related challenges, especially those related to terrorist groups inside Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and try to cooperate and coordinate with Iran in this regard.
The Russian and Turkish leaders will express their commitment to further strengthen their defense cooperation as well as its impact on the current security dynamics in the Black Sea region.
The ongoing conflicts in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean will also be addressed during the meeting, and the role of Russia and Turkey in these conflicts and the potential consequences of their cooperation or competition should be emphasized.
It is worth noting that Turkey is one of Russia’s largest economic partners, and the volume of trade between Turkey and Russia increased last year by 57%, achieving $ 33 billion. There are real efforts to raise trade exchange between them.”
The two countries are discussing additional areas for the development of cooperation, including the use of Turkey as a logistics center for the transport, receipt, and delivery of goods between Turkey and Russia, and the two countries are looking forward to a package of agreements, to raise the volume of trade exchange between them to $ 100 billion annually, in the coming years.
Perhaps the restart of the payment system with Russian cards Mir will be discussed again after it was halted almost a year ago, due to the threat of economic sanctions against Turkey in this regard and also because the West was supportive of Erdogan’s rivals in the Turkish elections. One of the advantages of this system is the increase in Russian tourist groups to Turkey than it is currently and the level of intra-trade between them.
As a reminder, Turkey receives from Russia the value (a quarter of its imports of Russian natural gas) in Russian rubles for the dollar deficit suffered by the Turkish state in accordance with the agreement signed between the two countries almost a year ago in the same city where they will meet in the morning (Sochi).
This, in turn, reduces dependence on the dollar and improves the terms of trade between the two countries, which is consistent with what was reached during the recent BRICS summit meetings less than two weeks ago in Johannesburg, South Africa, namely the attempt to get rid of dollar hegemony between member and friendly countries.
In the end, we are indeed in a new world order politically and economically that is taking shape before us, a rising East with power, and a West in a deplorable state.
